The Grain Traders Guide
The Less a man knows about the past and
present
The more insecure must be his judgment of the future !
- Sigmund Freud
Preview Guide
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Knowledge of the past and awareness of the present are
extremely important when entering into speculative ventures, especially commodity futures
trading. In order to make an informed decision on where the current and future
course of prices, one must understand the current environment with in its historical
context.
The Grain Traders Guide is organized to give you a
broad historical reference. Presented with in the context of a calendar, the
Guide
is intended to help organize your thoughts, so that you can approach speculative decisions
in a business like fashion. Hopefully, the Guide will help make your decisions in
the grain markets easier and more profitable by providing information like this:
CBOT
Futures Total Monthly
Performance 1981-1999*
* past performance is not necessarily indicative of
future results.
note: the following contract months were used to determine performance-
Jan=K, Feb=K, Mar=N, Apr=N, May=N, Jun=U, Jul=U, Aug=Z, Sep=Z, Oct=Z, Nov=H, Dec=H.
Data source: CSI Unfair Advantage. |
| The Grain
Traders Guide presents Total Monthly Performance figures for Corn, Wheat, and
Soybeans. This information may help improve your timing in the futures markets, as
you will be armed with an understanding of past market behavior.
Hedgers may use these performance charts
and tables as a guide for timing the marketing of their crops, or purchases. |
The Grain Traders Guide is also a valuable historical
reference for fundamental information. Here is a sample of the Supply Side of the
Balance Sheet Soybeans
Year |
Planted |
Harvested |
Yield |
Beginning
Stocks |
Production |
Total
Supply |
|
(in
million Acres) |
Bu/Acre |
(in
million bushels) |
1980/81 |
70.3 |
67.9 |
27 |
370 |
1,831 |
2,201 |
1981/82 |
68.1 |
66.9 |
31.2 |
345 |
2,089 |
2,434 |
1982/83 |
72.3 |
71 |
32.6 |
270 |
2,314 |
2,584 |
1983/84 |
63.3 |
61.7 |
24.9 |
455 |
1,535 |
1,990 |
1984/85 |
68.2 |
66.8 |
30.3 |
110 |
2,028 |
2,138 |
1985/86 |
63.2 |
62.2 |
33.2 |
310 |
2,063 |
2,373 |
1986/87 |
61.8 |
59.8 |
33.1 |
535 |
1,980 |
2,515 |
1987/88 |
58.7 |
57.6 |
34 |
480 |
1,957 |
2,437 |
1988/89 |
58.8 |
56.8 |
25.9 |
280 |
1,472 |
1,752 |
1989/90 |
60.5 |
59.1 |
32 |
155 |
1,889 |
2,044 |
1990/91 |
57.7 |
56.6 |
32.4 |
250 |
1,835 |
2,090 |
1991/92 |
59.8 |
58.6 |
31 |
320 |
1,817 |
2,142 |
1992/93 |
59.1 |
58.1 |
35.9 |
285 |
2,085 |
2,375 |
1993/94 |
59.5 |
56.2 |
34 |
290 |
1,909 |
2,204 |
1994/95 |
61.8 |
60.7 |
38.2 |
150 |
2,316 |
2,471 |
1995/96 |
62.6 |
61.7 |
37 |
355 |
2,285 |
2,645 |
1996/97 |
64.3 |
63.4 |
35.8 |
170 |
2,270 |
2,445 |
1997/98 |
70.9 |
69.8 |
39.3 |
115 |
2,746 |
2,866 |
1998/99 |
72.7 |
71.6 |
40.6 |
200 |
2,909 |
3,115 |
source: USDA/WASDE reports, September Report.
At your finger tips, you will have a complete reference
for the Supply/Usage. Futures traders will also be able to keep track of crop
progress, and compare the coming weeks to 5 year historical developmental stages.
Historic Crop Progress readings, as well as Crop Conditions values are available in the
Grain Traders Guide as well.
The Grain Traders Guide also goes beyond the standard
displaying of fundamental data, digging in deeper to help you anticipate the estimates put
out by the USDA.
Reliability
October USDA Forecast
Vs.
Final Estimates
|
Average
% |
Average
Bushels |
below |
above |
| Production |
2.6 |
196.0 |
12 |
6 |
| Exports |
15.5 |
280.0 |
8 |
10 |
| Domestic Use |
4.1 |
241.0 |
10 |
8 |
| Ending Stocks |
20.7 |
351.0 |
8 |
10 |
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| Knowing in advance that in the past 18 years, the USDA has under estimated
Production 12 times (66.6%) may help traders and hedgers position themselves before this
potentially market moving report is released. |
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