Technical Analysis . . . Gaps are Meant
to "Filled"
An old expression amongst traders and technical analysts
is that that "Gaps are meant to be filled". Before we jump into the validity of
this saying and what we can learn from examining the "Gap" we need to define
both a "Gap" and "Filled".
Gap Defined
There are two basic types of "Gaps": Up Gaps
and Down Gaps. An up-gap is defined as a day session price range in which today's low is
greater than the previous trading sessions high. A down-gap is defined as a day session
range in which the high for the current session is lower than the previous sessions low.
The Gap is defined as the range which is not filled in.
For example, the Up Gap presented above was between the high of the 4th bar to
the low of the 5th bar, or in this example from 390 to 392. The Down Gap
presented above covers the range from the low of the 4th bar to the high of the
5th bar, or from 390 to 386.
"Filled" Defined
A Gap is considered filled when prices close the gap, or
trade through the entire gap. An up gap is considered filled when prices trade at or below
the low point of the "up gap". Using our example above, on day 5 the market made
a gap from 390 to 392, and settled at 396 1/2. If this market were to trade at or below
390, the gap would be considered "filled". A down gap is considered
"filled" when prices trade at or above the highest point of the gap, or the low
on the day previous to the "gap". Using our example above, a gap occurred on day
5, from 386 to 390, and the market settled at 385. This gap would be considered filled
when prices traded up to 390.
Studying Gaps
We examined the last decade of prices (1989 to 1998) to
see if "Gaps are Filled" for the Corn, CBOT Wheat, and Soybean markets. For Corn
and CBOT Wheat we used the July contract from December through June and the December
contract from July through November. For Soybeans we used the July contract from November
through June and the November contract from July through October. Only one gap for any
given in each market was recorded and examined.
Over the last decade, Corn Futures have made 328 gaps,
CBOT Wheat futures have gapped 201 times and the Soybean futures market has formed 295
Gaps. This data period covers roughly 2,520 trading sessions, so gaps have occurred on the
charts 13% of the time for Corn, 7.9% of the time for CBOT futures and 11.7% of the time
for Soybean futures. With in 10 trading days of a gap occurring, prices filled the Gap 214
times in the Corn market (65.2%), 145 times in the CBOT Wheat market (72.1%) and 199 times
in the Soybean market (67.5%). Based on these figures, the old expression "Gaps are
meant to be Filled" is certainly filled.
Corn Futures Gaps Examined
Of the 328 Gaps in the corn market in the last decade,
150 were Up-Gaps (gap days low is higher than the previous days high) and 178 were
Down-Gaps (gap days high is lower than the previous days low). With in 10 business days,
65% of the Up-Gaps were filled and 66% of the Down-Gaps were filled. A break-down of the
filling of the gaps at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 trading sessions is as follows:
|
Total
Filled |
1 |
2-3
days |
4
-5 days |
6-7
days |
8-10
days |
| Up Gaps |
97 |
39 |
33 |
13 |
8 |
4 |
| Down Gaps |
117 |
42 |
39 |
17 |
14 |
6 |
As you can see by examining the above table, over 60% of
the Gaps are filled with in 7 days of the gap occurring on the chart., with almost half of
the Gaps being filled with in 3 days of the gap occurring. The quickness in filling the
gaps is most likely due to the fact that the bulk of the gaps are rather small: 237 of the
gaps examined in the last decade were less than 2 cents, and only 40 were greater than 4
cents (size of the gap is defined as the distance between the two extremes of the gap (Up
Gap: Low of Gap Day - High of Previous Day; Down Gap: Low of Previous Day - High of Gap
Day). Based on this, it is only logical that the smaller gaps are filled faster than the
larger gaps:
Gaps % Filled by Size of Gap
| (in cents/bu.) |
|
%
Filled |
1
day |
2-3
days |
4-5
days |
6-7days |
8-10
days |
| Less than -8 |
|
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
| -6 to -7.75 |
|
60% |
0% |
40% |
40% |
60% |
60% |
| -4 to -5.75 |
|
33% |
0% |
20% |
27% |
33% |
33% |
| -2.0 to -3.75 |
|
59% |
18% |
27% |
45% |
50% |
59% |
| 0 to -1.75 |
|
71% |
28% |
51% |
60% |
68% |
71% |
| 0 to 1.75 |
|
71% |
38% |
57% |
61% |
68% |
71% |
| 2 to 3.75 |
|
67% |
8% |
38% |
58% |
63% |
67% |
| 4 to 5.75 |
|
50% |
0% |
33% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
| 6 to 7.75 |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 8 to 9.75 |
|
60% |
0% |
40% |
60% |
60% |
60% |
| 10 to 11.75 |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Greater than 12 |
|
100% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Based on the above, it is safe to say that
"Gaps" in the Corn futures market tend to be filled with in 7 business, with
larger gaps taking longer.
CBOT Wheat Gaps Examined
Since 1979, the CBOT Wheat market has made 201 gaps. 95
of the gaps were Up-Gaps and 106 of the gaps were Down-Gaps. 67 of the 95 Up Gaps (71%)
were filled with in ten business days, and 78 of the 106 Down-Gaps (74%) were filled with
in 10 business days. A break-down of the filling of the gaps at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 trading
sessions is as follows:
|
Total
Filled |
1
day |
2-3
days |
4-5
days |
6-7
days |
8-10
days |
| Up Gaps |
67 |
23 |
31 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
| Down Gaps |
78 |
32 |
29 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
Over half of the Gaps in the CBOT Wheat market were
filled within 3 trading days, and over 60% of the Gaps were filled with in 5 trading
sessions. Much like the Corn market, the bulk of the CBOT Wheat gaps were very small in
size, with 160 of the 201 (79.6%) being less than 2 1/2 cents. Due to the frequency of
these small gaps, it is only logical that they be filled very quickly.
Gaps % Filled by Size of Gap
| In cents/bu. |
|
%
Filled |
1
day |
2-3
days |
4-5
days |
6-7
days |
8-10
days |
| Less
than -12.50 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
| -10 to
-12.25 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| -7.50
to -9.75 |
100% |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| -5 to -7.25 |
|
50% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
50% |
50% |
| -2.50
to -4.75 |
71% |
14% |
57% |
57% |
57% |
71% |
| 0 to -2.25 |
|
75% |
33% |
59% |
67% |
71% |
75% |
| 0 to 2.25 |
|
79% |
29% |
68% |
71% |
76% |
79% |
| 2.5 to 4.75 |
|
44% |
6% |
31% |
38% |
44% |
44% |
| 5 to 7.25 |
|
40% |
20% |
20% |
20% |
40% |
40% |
| 7.50 to 9.95 |
|
67% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
67% |
67% |
| 10 to 12.25 |
|
50% |
0% |
0% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
| Greater
than 12.50 |
100% |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Again, the old saying "Gaps are meant to be
Filled" scored true for the CBOT Wheat market, with the speed of the closing of the
gap being directly proportional to the size of the gap.
Soybean Gaps Examined
The most volatile member of the grain complex is the
Soybean market, so it is only logical that it has displayed the most Gaps in the last
decade. Of the 295 gaps on the Soybean charts since 1979, 199 have been filled. Soybean
gaps have been fairly evenly distributed between Up-Gaps and Down-Gaps, with 144 Up-Gaps
and 151 Down-Gaps. 101 of the total 144 Up-Gaps have been filled within 10 trading
sessions (70%) and 98 of the 151 Down-Gaps have been filled with 10 trading sessions. A
break-down of the filling of the gaps at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 trading sessions is as
follows:
|
Total
Filled |
1
day |
2-3
days |
4-5
days |
6-7
days |
8-10
days |
| Up Gaps |
101 |
42 |
31 |
17 |
7 |
4 |
| Down Gaps |
98 |
36 |
25 |
19 |
10 |
8 |
Like the other markets examined, the bulk of the gaps in
the Soybean market are samll, with 222 of the total 295 Gaps being less than 5 cents. As
such, over half of the Up-Gaps are filled within 3 business days and half of the Down-Gaps
within 5 business days. Within 7 trading sessions of the gap, 63.3% of all the gaps are
filled. However, the large gaps, especially to the downside do not tend to be filled with
in 10 trading sessions. Only 38% of the Gaps less than -10 cents to the downside have been
filled with in 10 trading sessions, while less than half of the upside gaps greater than
15 cents have been filled with in two weeks. The size of the gap is very important in the
Soybean market. Below is a distribution of Gaps by size with percentage filling:
Gaps % Filled by Size of Gap
| In cents/bu. |
|
% Filled |
1
day |
2-3
days |
4-5days |
6-7
days |
8-10
days |
| Less than -25 |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| -24.75 to -20 |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| -19.75 to -15 |
|
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
| -14.75 to -10 |
|
38% |
6% |
13% |
13% |
38% |
38% |
| -9.75 to -5 |
|
61% |
28% |
11% |
39% |
50% |
61% |
| -4.75 to 0 |
|
69% |
37% |
48% |
59% |
64% |
69% |
| 0 to 4.75 |
|
74% |
18% |
59% |
69% |
72% |
74% |
| 5 to 9.75 |
|
68% |
8% |
36% |
50% |
59% |
68% |
| 10 to 14.75 |
|
75% |
0% |
42% |
67% |
75% |
75% |
| 15 to 19.75 |
|
50% |
0% |
0% |
25% |
50% |
50% |
| 20 to 24.75 |
|
33% |
0% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
| Greater than 25 |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Based on the above, the old wisdom that "Gaps are
meant to be Filled" hold true for the Soybean market as well, however in the event of
a large Gap, don't count on it. However, Gaps greater than -12 cents to the down side have
only occurred 12 times in the last decade, and upside gaps greater than 15 cents have only
occurred 8 times. In the event of one of these rare occurrences, ignore the old traders
saying.
Corollary to Gaps must be
Filled…. Gaps predict Direction
Another frequently bandied about expression by the
chartists and traders is that gaps predict direction after being filled. On the whole,
this is marginally true, with Up Gaps leading to higher prices 50% of the time in the Corn
market, 49.5% of the time in the CBOT Wheat market, and a scant 42.4% of the time in the
Soybean futures market. However, the time of the year incorporated with the direction of
the Gap can be a good indication of future direction.
Gaps tend to occur during the months with the most
uncertainty. For the grains this equates to the weather markets of June, July and August.
# of Gaps by Month and Type
|
Corn
Up |
Corn
Down |
Wheat
Up |
Wheat
Down |
Soybean
Up |
Soybean
Down |
| Total |
150 |
178 |
95 |
106 |
144 |
151 |
| Jan |
13 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
| Feb |
6 |
9 |
2 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
| Mar |
8 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
| Apr |
11 |
11 |
14 |
8 |
12 |
9 |
| May |
11 |
17 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
11 |
| Jun |
23 |
23 |
14 |
13 |
21 |
24 |
| Jul |
21 |
33 |
13 |
13 |
25 |
28 |
| Aug |
20 |
17 |
10 |
10 |
16 |
16 |
| Sep |
8 |
14 |
6 |
7 |
11 |
12 |
| Oct |
13 |
13 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
| Nov |
9 |
15 |
1 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
| Dec |
7 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
11 |
10 |
# of Times Gaps have Correctly
Predicted the
next 10 Trading Sessions direction
|
Corn
Up |
Corn
Down |
Wheat
Up |
Wheat
Down |
Soybean
Up |
Soybean
Down |
| Total |
75 |
94 |
47 |
55 |
61 |
73 |
| Jan |
8 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
| Feb |
5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
| Mar |
4 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
| Apr |
3 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
| May |
6 |
8 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
7 |
| Jun |
12 |
11 |
4 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
| Jul |
7 |
24 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
22 |
| Aug |
13 |
6 |
7 |
3 |
11 |
4 |
| Sep |
3 |
8 |
4 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
| Oct |
7 |
6 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
| Nov |
4 |
8 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
| Dec |
3 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
3 |
Total Change over Next 10 Trading
Sessions
by Month and Gap Type
|
Corn
Up |
Corn
Down |
Wheat
Up |
Wheat
Down |
Soybean
Up |
Soybean
Down |
| Total |
-241.75 |
-253 |
13.5 |
40 |
-800.25 |
-161.125 |
| Jan |
-5.25 |
4 |
-1 |
11.75 |
-53.25 |
0.75 |
| Feb |
21.5 |
14.5 |
9.5 |
10.75 |
10.75 |
59.75 |
| Mar |
34.25 |
-34.25 |
44.5 |
17.75 |
-4 |
-27.25 |
| Apr |
-24.75 |
22 |
95.75 |
-12.5 |
-97 |
59.75 |
| May |
15.75 |
-9 |
-42.75 |
-80.5 |
-133.5 |
-133 |
| Jun |
-54.75 |
-14.75 |
-76.75 |
57.75 |
-77.75 |
0.875 |
| Jul |
-241.25 |
-219.25 |
-40 |
-83.75 |
-403.5 |
-346.75 |
| Aug |
31 |
12.5 |
28.75 |
35.75 |
44.25 |
115.75 |
| Sep |
3.5 |
-28.5 |
12.25 |
74.5 |
-128 |
-65.25 |
| Oct |
-17 |
-7 |
-45.75 |
34 |
19.75 |
31.5 |
| Nov |
-13.75 |
-5.5 |
11 |
-39 |
17 |
82.75 |
| Dec |
9 |
12.25 |
18 |
12 |
5 |
60 |
Based on the above traders should head the following:
- Follow Upside Gaps in the Month of
February in the Corn and Soybean markets. Aggressive Traders may also wish to
"fade" downside Gaps.
- Follow Upside Gaps in the Month of
March in the CBOT Wheat Market.
- During the month of April,
"fade" all Gaps in the Soybean market as Gaps have historically been exhaustive
in nature.
- As the winter Wheat matures in May,
follow any downside gaps in the CBOT Wheat market during May.
- July has historically seen more Gaps
than any other month, and all the Gaps tend to offer good opportunities to establish short
positions: follow downside gaps and "fade" upside gaps in July.
- Follow upside Gaps in the Corn market
in August, and "fade" downside gaps in the Soybean market.
- Follow upside gaps in the Wheat market
during November as planting premiums are built into the winter Wheat market, and
"fade" downside Gaps in the Soybean market as harvest pressure is typically
overdone.
The above are a few simple rules, which grain traders may
wish to examine closer to see if they can be fit into your trading aresenal. If you have
any suggestions for future articles, please feel free to drop an e-mail to grainmaster@grainguide.com |
