|
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
Finding the "Right Price"
The author Wm. Grandmill's greatest contribution to grain futures trading was his work with comparing Ending Stocks to Total Use. Grandmill hypothesized (we believe correctly) that the relationship between supply as a percentage of Total Use can correctly forecast the general trend of grain futures prices months into the future.
Ending Stocks are used because Ending Stocks represent the amount of grain left over from this crop year "carried over" into next crop year. Ending Stocks is simply the surplus left over at the end of the year.
Total Supply - Total Use = Ending Stocks
By using Ending Stocks as the measure of supply, one can see in a nutshell when Supply is growing relative to Use, and vice versa. Because Ending Stocks can vary greatly from year to year, and the absolute size has increased dramatically in the past decade, this figure can not be used alone. Just using ending stocks is like saying that a person who weighs 200 pounds, is fat. If this person is 6' 6" tall, then a 200 pound person would be quite thin, while a 200 pound 5' tall person, may be quite portly. Just as doctors look at height relative to weight, the commodity trader must judge Ending Stocks relative to Total Use, to get an accurate forecast of the relationship between Supply and Use.
What Grandmill did was to compare all the Ending Stocks to Use ratios (Ending Stocks / Total Use) to the price of the particular commodity. What he found was that the higher the Ending Stocks to Use ratio was, the lower prices tended to be around harvest. Lower Ending Stocks to Use ratios generated higher prices, as supply was tight.
Modified Grandmill Method
The same basic principles of the relationship between supply and demand are kept intact with our modifications, however we have broken down supply to use into 5 categories and we use relative changes in prices (% change) instead of absolute price levels. We have also included in the 2002 Grain Trader's Almanac studies using world supply, usage, and ending stocks figures, because the grain markets are no longer strictly a domestic market place, but a world wide one!
We examined the last 19 years of Ending Stocks to Use ratios and separated them into five descriptive classifications: Excessive, Plentiful, Normal, Tight, and Extremely Tight. For each of these classifications, we have calculated a typical market behavior for the percentage change to the seasonal high and low, and the percentage change from a start date to the end of the month prior to delivery of the futures contract being analyzed.
Using the Grandmill method, one can put the relationship between supply and usage into perspective. Each month, around the 12th, the USDA/NASS issues the necessary information to make a “guesstimate” of price. With the easy to follow tables provided each year in the Grain Trader's Almanac, grain market participants can make educated "guesstimates" about the future of grain prices using Supply and Usage information.