19 year Seasonal Average
 

        Years 1983 to 2001 settlement values used. 

COMMENTS: Strongly tends to move in the opposite direction of December ~ February Break tends to start mid Month and finish in early February ~ Best January’s have followed December weakness, while best February’s have followed January weakness ~ Weak January’s tend to see lower lows in February – but prices may come back

19 Year Monthly Performance Summary

# Years Up

9

# Higher Highs

5

# Years Dn

10

# Lower Lows

9

Total Change

31 1/4

# Expanded Range

13

Avg Change

1 3/4

# Narrow Range

6

Avg Gain

11   

Avg Loss

-7

5 Yr High

283 1/2

Avg Range

15 1/2

5 Yr Low

200 1/2

 19 year Seasonal Average
 

        Years 1983 to 2001 settlement values used. 

COMMENTS:  All 6 January rallies have followed weak Decembers ~ Down 13 of the last 19 years and 4 of the last 5 years (1997 saw a +52 ¾ cent rally, though) ~ Weak Decembers see lower January lows, then a rally ~ February Break is usually the worst following a strong January ~ Look for bulls to end by mid Month

19 Year Monthly Performance Summary

# Years Up

6

# Higher Highs

6

# Years Dn

13

# Lower Lows

10

Total Change

-170 1/2

# Expanded Range

10

Avg Change

-9

# Narrow Range

9

Avg Gain

26   

Avg Loss

-25 1/4

5 Yr High

754   

Avg Range

39 1/2

5 Yr Low

456 1/4

 19 year Seasonal Average
 

        Years 1983 to 2001 settlement values used. 

COMMENTS:  8 out of 9 December breaks have rallied in January ~ But, 11 of the last 11 January rallies have plummeted in February, losing a total of –137 ¾ cents ~ In other words, January rallies tend to reverse sharply in February ~ Volatility tends to expand in January, with the monthly range exceeding Decembers in 15 of the last 19 years

19 Year Monthly Performance Summary

# Years Up

11

# Higher Highs

10

# Years Dn

8

# Lower Lows

12

Total Change

-11 1/2

# Expanded Range

15

Avg Change

- 1/2

# Narrow Range

4

Avg Gain

12 1/4

Avg Loss

-18 1/2

5 Yr High

399 3/4

Avg Range

24 1/4

5 Yr Low

241